The Economics of Fusion Energy: Assessing the Commercial Viability of Commonwealth Fusion Systems' ARC Device

This paper assesses the commercial viability of the Affordable, Robust, Compact (ARC) fusion device under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) via the scaled-down, experimental SPARC reactor. The assessment begins with an analysis of CFS’ history, investors, and goals. ARC’s innovative design is then evaluated using some notable critiques on the commercial and technological viability of fusion reactors as a guide on the necessary challenges to overcome. To provide situational awareness, the paper investigates other firms pursuing fusion. Indirect competitors in the broader renewable space are also analyzed to distill a necessary Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) that ARC must achieve to be competitive in the energy market of the 2030s and beyond. Combining the technological assessment with an understanding of the scalability factors that face ARC, the paper arrives at the conclusion that although CFS will likely achieve net positive energy production with the SPARC reactor by 2030, it is unlikely that ARC fusion reactors will be commercially viable before 2040.

(Special thanks to Dr. Scott Hsu at ARPA-E for help researching and refining this report.)

Harry Thomas is a senior in the College studying Economics and Science, Technology, and International Affairs (STIA). He is a Co-Founder and Co-President of GUSI.